Just look at all the predictions from GL, lamlaw, and Y!SCOX about all the things that the  court "must do according to the law". Everyone seems to forget that the judges have a lot of discretion when it comes to how things proceed.

About the only thing that I would be willing to predict is that it will become clear that this is the action that DAK has been waiting for. He wants the basic question of copyright ownership settled.

As for the BK, I am not convinced that it is going to happen yet, even if the trust is established. While there is little doubt that they will end up in BK, there are certainly reasons for some people and organizations to extend the time between certain actions and the BK, even if it meant coming up with $30M to put in the trust.

Would any of you be the least bit surprised if some "angel" of a holding company from some caribbean island decided to take SCOX private and try and run out the lawsuits for two more years rather than go into BK in October?

I don't really expect that to happen, but it would not surprise me if it did.

If they do shut down this year, I also expect that there will be some deals made, but I would be quite impressed if they are able to strike all the deals that they want with all the interested parties. It isn't just IBM and Novell that are involved here. AutoZone, Red Hat and the SEC will all be able to get access to all the dirt from the IBM and Novell lawsuits and settlements. Not to mention all those other interested parties that SCOX has created that could file suit.