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By JCausey, Section SCO Related Articles
One of the questions I've been pondering since SCOX made their bankruptcy filing is whether there is any financial reason for the bankruptcy? Or is it merely a gambit to try to end their failed litigation strategy and avoid paying Novell at the same time? As many people have noted, if you look at just the most recent 10Q's balance sheet, SCOX appears to have more current assets than current liabilities. So why would bankruptcy apply to them? And how would the bankruptcy court view this information?
I've been doing some (albeit limited) research into financial analysis and bankruptcy. As I look at some of the more basic tools one uses in analyzing financial statements, I noted the following:
Current ratio = 1.47
Quick ratio = 1.47 Working capital = $4.7M Operating cash flow = -6.31 I think that last item is worth noting. If you look at SCOX's statement of cash flows, I believe you will find that their operations have not been strong enough to fund their ongoing expenses. In the past, it looks like SCOX has been selling securities to obtain funding. However, according to the latest 10Q, they no longer had any available for sale marketable securities, so that source of cash was no longer available. The impact of the lack of an asset to turn into cash could be heightened by the info in the Income Statement indicating revenues took a significant hit during the last reported quarter - down 27.6% compared to the previous quarter. Have they lost even more revenue in the two months since then? From the analysis I've been able to do, I don't see anything that pops out as a financial reason for the bankruptcy attempt. The only potential source appears to be that SCOX ran out of cash to pay its bills, but even that is unclear. And even if true, it seems like other options would be available other than bankruptcy. Finally, during my research I remembered that I ran the Z-Score analysis on SCOX. That was back in January 2006. At the time, it was indicating a good chance of bankruptcy within 2 years. Looks like it was right (even though the basis - weak financial performance - may not be entirely correct). I did re-run the analysis and came up with a score of -22.34 (using the quarterly data for July 31, 2007). According to the CreditGuru site, this score indicates "Probability of Financial embarassment is very high." I don't think SCOX's embarassment is limited to financial. Finally, I've also seen some musings about whether Novell will file to keep their suit going as well as why they haven't done that yet. According to reports, they had a representative at the bankruptcy hearing. They were advised to file the appropriate motions to have a stay of the case lifted. As I think about Novell's position, I wonder if from a strategy standpoint they may just let the bankruptcy run its course for a while. SCOX is now limited with regard to the cash they can burn by what the court will allow. If Novell proceeds now, even SCOX admits a significant damage award in Novell's favor would essentially wipe them out. But if there is no real financial reason for bankruptcy, it might behoove Novell to wait and let the bankruptcy attempt fail, then resume their lawsuit. As it stands now, I think they are at the back of the line - waiting may let them jump to the front. Does that sound reasonable?
Thanks for reading,
Some SCOX Financial Analysis | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Some SCOX Financial Analysis | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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