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Some SCOX Financial Analysis


SCO v The World

By JCausey, Section SCO Related Articles
Posted on Fri Sep 21st, 2007 at 13:06:56 EST

One of the questions I've been pondering since SCOX made their bankruptcy filing is whether there is any financial reason for the bankruptcy?  Or is it merely a gambit to try to end their failed litigation strategy and avoid paying Novell at the same time?  As many people have noted, if you look at just the most recent 10Q's balance sheet, SCOX appears to have more current assets than current liabilities.  So why would bankruptcy apply to them?  And how would the bankruptcy court view this information?

I've been doing some (albeit limited) research into financial analysis and bankruptcy.  As I look at some of the more basic tools one uses in analyzing financial statements, I noted the following:

Current ratio = 1.47
Quick ratio = 1.47
Working capital = $4.7M
Operating cash flow = -6.31

I think that last item is worth noting.  If you look at SCOX's statement of cash flows, I believe you will find that their operations have not been strong enough to fund their ongoing expenses.  In the past, it looks like SCOX has been selling securities to obtain funding.  However, according to the latest 10Q, they no longer had any available for sale marketable securities, so that source of cash was no longer available.

The impact of the lack of an asset to turn into cash could be heightened by the info in the Income Statement indicating revenues took a significant hit during the last reported quarter - down 27.6% compared to the previous quarter.  Have they lost even more revenue in the two months since then?

From the analysis I've been able to do, I don't see anything that pops out as a financial reason for the bankruptcy attempt.  The only potential source appears to be that SCOX ran out of cash to pay its bills, but even that is unclear.  And even if true, it seems like other options would be available other than bankruptcy.

Finally, during my research I remembered that I ran the Z-Score analysis on SCOX.  That was back in January 2006.  At the time, it was indicating a good chance of bankruptcy within 2 years.  Looks like it was right (even though the basis - weak financial performance - may not be entirely correct).  I did re-run the analysis and came up with a score of -22.34 (using the quarterly data for July 31, 2007).  According to the CreditGuru site, this score indicates "Probability of Financial embarassment is very high."  I don't think SCOX's embarassment is limited to financial.

Finally, I've also seen some musings about whether Novell will file to keep their suit going as well as why they haven't done that yet.  According to reports, they had a representative at the bankruptcy hearing.  They were advised to file the appropriate motions to have a stay of the case lifted.

As I think about Novell's position, I wonder if from a strategy standpoint they may just let the bankruptcy run its course for a while.  SCOX is now limited with regard to the cash they can burn by what the court will allow.  If Novell proceeds now, even SCOX admits a significant damage award in Novell's favor would essentially wipe them out.  But if there is no real financial reason for bankruptcy, it might behoove Novell to wait and let the bankruptcy attempt fail, then resume their lawsuit.  As it stands now, I think they are at the back of the line - waiting may let them jump to the front.  Does that sound reasonable?

Thanks for reading,
Jeff

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Some SCOX Financial Analysis | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis (4.00 / 4) (#3)
by xtc on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 10:36:36 EST
(User Info)
Novell wants their claim to be considered on the basis that the $25 million or so is simply their property, held in trust, however, the money has been converted. The conversion has to be traced if Novell wants special status.

In Chapter 7, any hopes of the company continuing are gone. It's being wound up. The trustee acts to realise the maximum cash for the BK court to distribute to the claimants. The trustee is in total control and that includes being privy to confidences with external lawyers, accountants, banks. Effectively, he is and was their client, except he's got a totally different agenda to the one SCO had.

The trustee has to be looking at the past history of the company, the lawsuits and the question of the concealment or misappropriation of assets. The fees paid to BS&F will bear investigation, and BS&F would have no right to keep details of any dealings with SCO from him. There can be lapses of memory and lost records, but that's a dangerous game indeed. If it can be shown that any party received funds knowing them to have been wrongfully witheld from Novell, they could be forced to return them.

I'd say Novell were doing the right thing in pushing SCO into bankruptcy now it's been established that no copyrights were transferred. I think Novell stands a better chance of tracing the conversion with SCO in Chapter 7 in the control of the trustee, rather than with them continuing as a business.

It's been obvious for a long time that SCO was going to end up bankrupt. I've no idea why SCO applied for Chapter 11 when they did. It gives them some respite from their creditors. Maybe they think that it helps give the impression of being a proper business which has found itself in difficult circumstances rather than a scam played out until it was run to ground. It might look better in court one day.

  • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by ColonelZen, 09/23/2007 11:41:48 EST (4.00 / 3)
    • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by xtc, 09/23/2007 15:01:33 EST (4.00 / 3)
Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis (3.50 / 2) (#1)
by br3n on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 16:47:31 EST
(User Info)
i dont understand why we havent seen anything from novell yet but i figure it must be a reason they want to lock tight.
i also feel we have years more before all of this gets settled.
the personal liability lawsuits and then directors and just everything being settled.
sigh
br3n
br3n
  • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by ColonelZen, 09/22/2007 22:58:30 EST (4.00 / 3)
Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis (3.50 / 2) (#6)
by br3n on Wed Sep 26th, 2007 at 11:03:41 EST
(User Info)
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1911&mn=44865&pt=msg&mid=3084295

cods asks some very good and sharp questions.
it is interesting to talk and wonder about what can happen now in BK court? from just the little i have read there isnt much out of their range of control?
so what is possible next step?

and my question is
where is the filling from novell?
br3n
br3n

  • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by JCausey, 09/27/2007 12:21:37 EST (4.00 / 2)
    • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by br3n, 09/29/2007 15:46:46 EST (3.50 / 2)
      • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by JCausey, 09/30/2007 23:14:58 EST (4.00 / 2)
        • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by xtc, 10/01/2007 10:15:09 EST (4.33 / 3)
          • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by br3n, 10/03/2007 10:19:07 EST (3.33 / 3)
            • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by ColonelZen, 10/03/2007 23:07:37 EST (4.66 / 3)
              • Re: Some SCOX Financial Analysis by br3n, 10/06/2007 10:17:18 EST (none / 1)
Some SCOX Financial Analysis | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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